MLB First Pitch Picks Today: Best Bets (May 2nd) | MLB EDGE

MLB Matchup Preview: Top Picks for Saturday's Betting Slate

Happy Saturday, baseball nerds! Ready to dive into the MLB action with some first pitch betting insights? We've got a lineup of 18 plays to get you geared up for today's games. Let's break them down, so you can make informed picks and hopefully cash in.

📍Note: always verify starting lineups as this blog is written before most lineups are confirmed using projected starting pitchers, lineups, and batting orders.

💡

New to this market? Check out our Complete Guide to MLB First Pitch Betting Strategy to understand the data and "fair odds" calculations we use for these daily picks.

First Pitch Betting Breakdown

Orioles at Yankees

• Taylor Ward vs. Ryan Weathers
  • Projected Outcome : Strike (65.5% chance, fair odds -190)
  • Key Stats :
    • Ryan Weathers throws in the zone 71.4% and allows balls in play 14.3%.
    • Taylor Ward swings at 23.1% and puts in play 5.1%.

Padres at Yankees

• Trent Grisham vs. Kyle Bradish
  • Projected Outcome : Strike (62.0% chance, fair odds -163)
  • Key Stats :
    • Kyle Bradish throws in the zone 66.7% and allows balls in play 8.3%.
    • Trent Grisham swings at 15.7% and puts in play 4.3%.

Twins at White Sox

• Byron Buxton vs. Dylan Cease
  • Projected Outcome : Ball (59.0% chance, fair odds -144)
  • Key Stat : Dylan Cease throws a first pitch ball 59.0% of the time.

Diamondbacks at Cubs

• Ketel Marte vs. Shota Imanaga
  • Projected Outcome : Ball (53.1% chance, fair odds -113)
  • Key Stat : Shota Imanaga throws a first pitch ball 53.1% of the time.

Guardians at Athletics

• Steven Kwan vs. Jacob Lopez
  • Projected Outcome : Ball (50.0% chance, fair odds -100)
  • Key Stat : Jacob Lopez throws a first pitch ball 50.0% of the time.

Reds at Pirates

• TJ Friedl vs. Carmen Mlodzinski
  • Projected Outcome : Ball (47.1% chance, fair odds +113)
  • Key Stat : Carmen Mlodzinski throws a first pitch ball 47.1% of the time.
• Oneil Cruz vs. Rhett Lowder
  • Projected Outcome : Ball (83.3% chance, fair odds -500)
  • Key Stat : Rhett Lowder throws a first pitch ball 83.3% of the time.

Giants at Padres

• James Wood vs. Kyle Harrison
  • Projected Outcome : In Play (21.9% chance, fair odds +358)
  • Key Stats :
    • Kyle Harrison throws in the zone 90.9%, swings 54.5%, and allows in play 18.2%.
    • James Wood swings at 32.9% and puts in play 15.1%.

Red Sox at Astros

• Jarren Duran vs. Spencer Arrighetti
  • Projected Outcome : Strike (61.2% chance, fair odds -158)
  • Key Stats :
    • Spencer Arrighetti throws in the zone 70.0% and allows 0.0% in play.
    • Jarren Duran swings at 25.9% and puts in play 9.5%.

Phillies at Marlins

• Trea Turner vs. Max Meyer
  • Projected Outcome : Ball (50.0% chance, fair odds -100)
  • Key Stat : Max Meyer throws a first pitch ball 50.0% of the time.

Dodgers at Cardinals

• Shohei Ohtani vs. Michael McGreevy
  • Projected Outcome : Strike (65.9% chance, fair odds -193)
  • Key Stats :
    • Michael McGreevy throws in the zone 81.8% and allows in play 22.7%.
    • Shohei Ohtani swings at 26.2% and puts in play 9.7%.

Brewers at Tigers

• JJ Wetherholt vs. Roki Sasaki
  • Projected Outcome : Ball (53.8% chance, fair odds -117)
  • Key Stat : Roki Sasaki throws a first pitch ball 53.8% of the time.

Rockies at Red Sox

• Jordan Beck vs. Chris Sale
  • Projected Outcome : In Play (17.2% chance, fair odds +481)
  • Key Stats :
    • Chris Sale throws in the zone 61.5%, swings 34.6%, and allows in play 23.1%.
    • Jordan Beck swings at 39.4% and puts in play 18.2%.

Athletics at Braves

• Ramon Laureano vs. Sean Burke
  • Projected Outcome : Strike (61.5% chance, fair odds -160)
  • Key Stats :
    • Sean Burke throws in the zone 61.5% and allows 0.0% in play.
    • Ramon Laureano swings at 20.0% and puts in play 0.0%.

Mets at Angels

• Bo Bichette vs. Reid Detmers
  • Projected Outcome : In Play (16.2% chance, fair odds +519)
  • Key Stats :
    • Reid Detmers throws in the zone 58.3%, swings 41.7%, and allows in play 4.2%.
    • Bo Bichette swings at 40.7% and puts in play 22.0%.

Royals at Mariners

• Maikel Garcia vs. Emerson Hancock
  • Projected Outcome : In Play (26.1% chance, fair odds +283)
  • Key Stats :
    • Emerson Hancock throws in the zone 77.3%, swings 54.5%, and allows in play 27.3%.
    • Maikel Garcia swings at 29.4% and puts in play 17.6%.

Mariners at Padres

• J.P. Crawford vs. Seth Lugo
  • Projected Outcome : In Play (21.4% chance, fair odds +367)
  • Key Stats :
    • Seth Lugo throws in the zone 81.8%, swings 39.4%, and allows in play 21.2%.
    • J.P. Crawford swings at 37.2% and puts in play 16.3%.

Conclusion

That's your rundown for today's MLB betting slate. With insights into first pitches and player tendencies, you're all set to place your bets. Keep an eye on those pitchers who love throwing in the zone and those batters who make contact. Good luck out there, and may your picks bring you wins!