MLB First Pitch Picks Today: Best Bets (April 18th) | MLB EDGE

Weekend MLB Matchup Preview: Key Betting Insights

It's the weekend, and that means it's time for a baseball bonanza! After cashing in big yesterday with a +2700 (boosted to +3400) bet on Davis Schneider , there's plenty more action on deck.

Remember, finding the best odds is crucial, so shop around or bet live. While FanDuel gets their lines up early, you might find better odds at DraftKings, Score, or Bet365. Let's dive into the 21 unique plays we have lined up for today.

📍Note: always verify starting lineups as this blog is written before most lineups are confirmed using projected starting pitchers, lineups, and batting orders.

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New to this market? Check out our Complete Guide to MLB First Pitch Betting Strategy to understand the data and "fair odds" calculations we use for these daily picks.

Royals @ Yankees

• Top 1st Inning: Maikel Garcia vs. Will Warren
  • Projected Outcome: Strike (67.7% chance, fair odds -210)
  • Key Insights: Warren's high zone percentage (83.8%) and Garcia's low swing rate (26.2%) make a strike the favored outcome.
• Bottom 1st Inning: Paul Goldschmidt vs. Noah Cameron
  • Projected Outcome: Ball (55.6% chance, fair odds -125)
  • Key Insights: Cameron's tendency to throw first-pitch balls (55.6%) leans this play towards a ball.

Reds @ Twins

• Top 1st Inning: TJ Friedl vs. Taj Bradley
  • Projected Outcome: Ball (58.1% chance, fair odds -138)
  • Key Insights: Bradley often starts with a ball, making this a likely outcome.
• Bottom 1st Inning: Byron Buxton vs. Andrew Abbott
  • Projected Outcome: Ball (54.5% chance, fair odds -120)
  • Key Insights: Abbott's propensity for first-pitch balls gives this prediction some solid footing.

Giants @ Nationals

• Top 1st Inning: Luis Arraez vs. Cade Cavalli
  • Projected Outcome: Strike (63.5% chance, fair odds -174)
  • Key Insights: Cavalli's impressive zone stats and Arraez's low swing tendency favor a strike.

Rays @ Pirates

• Bottom 1st Inning: Oneil Cruz vs. Drew Rasmussen
  • Projected Outcome: Strike (59.6% chance, fair odds -147)
  • Key Insights: Rasmussen's control in the zone and Cruz's swing habits point to a strike.

Tigers @ Red Sox

• Top 1st Inning: Kevin McGonigle vs. Brayan Bello
  • Projected Outcome: In Play (54.5% chance, fair odds -120)
  • Key Insights: Bello's zone dominance and McGonigle's swing rate suggest an "in play" result.
• Bottom 1st Inning: Roman Anthony vs. Tarik Skubal
  • Projected Outcome: In Play (15.1% chance, fair odds +562)
  • Key Insights: A rare occurrence due to low odds, but Skubal's tendency to allow balls in play might make this worth a shot.

Brewers @ Marlins

• Top 1st Inning: Sal Frelick vs. Sandy Alcantara
  • Projected Outcome: Strike (71.4% chance, fair odds -250)
  • Key Insights: Alcantara's precision makes a strike highly probable.
• Bottom 1st Inning: Jakob Marsee vs. Brandon Woodruff
  • Projected Outcome: In Play (24.4% chance, fair odds +309)
  • Key Insights: Woodruff's zone control and Marsee's swing rate hint at an "in play" scenario.

Orioles @ Guardians

• Top 1st Inning: Gunnar Henderson vs. Gavin Williams
  • Projected Outcome: In Play (16.4% chance, fair odds +511)
  • Key Insights: Williams' and Henderson's tendencies align for a potential in-play result.
• Bottom 1st Inning: Steven Kwan vs. Dean Kremer
  • Projected Outcome: Strike (78.4% chance, fair odds -364)
  • Key Insights: Kremer's strike zone accuracy makes a strike very likely.

Cardinals @ Astros

• Top 1st Inning: JJ Wetherholt vs. Lance McCullers Jr.
  • Projected Outcome: Ball (56.3% chance, fair odds -129)
  • Key Insights: McCullers' history of first-pitch balls leans this play towards a ball.
• Bottom 1st Inning: Jose Altuve vs. Andre Pallante
  • Projected Outcome: In Play (14.4% chance, fair odds +596)
  • Key Insights: Altuve's high swing rate could make this a surprise "in play" outcome.

Rangers @ Mariners

• Bottom 1st Inning: Brendan Donovan vs. Nathan Eovaldi
  • Projected Outcome: In Play (23.7% chance, fair odds +323)
  • Key Insights: Eovaldi's zone control and Donovan's swing behavior suggest a ball in play.

Braves @ Phillies

• Top 1st Inning: Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Cristopher Sánchez
  • Projected Outcome: In Play (17.1% chance, fair odds +486)
  • Key Insights: Acuña's aggressive style and Sánchez's zone stats point to an in-play ball.

Dodgers @ Rockies

• Top 1st Inning: Shohei Ohtani vs. Ryan Feltner
  • Projected Outcome: Ball (55.6% chance, fair odds -125)
  • Key Insights: Feltner's first-pitch history favors a ball.
• Bottom 1st Inning: Edouard Julien vs. Emmet Sheehan
  • Projected Outcome: Ball (60.0% chance, fair odds -150)
  • Key Insights: Sheehan's pattern of starting with balls suggests a similar outcome.

Blue Jays @ D-backs

• Bottom 1st Inning: Ketel Marte vs. Max Scherzer
  • Projected Outcome: In Play (23.3% chance, fair odds +328)
  • Key Insights: Marte's swing tendencies and Scherzer's zone control make this a potential play.

Padres @ Angels

• Top 1st Inning: Ramon Laureano vs. Yusei Kikuchi
  • Projected Outcome: Strike (60.5% chance, fair odds -153)
  • Key Insights: Kikuchi's zone dominance makes a strike a strong possibility.
• Bottom 1st Inning: Zach Neto vs. Germán Márquez
  • Projected Outcome: Ball (51.7% chance, fair odds -107)
  • Key Insights: Márquez's tendency to open with a ball suggests this outcome.

Conclusion

This weekend's MLB matchups are packed with exciting opportunities. Keep these insights in mind as you place your bets. Whether you're looking at pitch outcomes or player tendencies, there's a lot to consider. Remember to shop around for the best odds and happy betting!