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  "description": "Dive into 15 data-driven MLB First Pitch picks for April 17th. We analyze fair odds for key matchups, including Steven Kwan vs. Chris Bassitt, Trea Turner vs. Martín Pérez, and Tyler Glasnow at Coors Field. Find the best value on strikes, balls, and in-play outcomes today.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-picks-today-best-bets-april-17/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-04-17T21:32:54.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "Complete Guide to MLB First Pitch Betting Strategy"
  ],
  "textContent": "# MLB Matchup Preview: Betting Insights for Today’s Games\n\nHappy Friday, baseball fans! As the MLB gears up with some exciting getaway day games, we’re diving into the first pitch betting slate. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just love to keep up with the game, we've got 15 unique plays to analyze. Let’s break down the action and see where the smart money is.\n\n> 📍Note: always verify starting lineups as this blog is written before most lineups are confirmed using projected starting pitchers, lineups, and batting orders.\n\n💡\n\n****New to this market?**** Check out our Complete Guide to MLB First Pitch Betting Strategy to understand the data and \"fair odds\" calculations we use for these daily picks.\n\n##\n\n## Orioles @ Guardians: Steven Kwan vs. Chris Bassitt\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** Strike (67.2% chance, fair odds -205)\n  * **Chris Bassitt** is incredibly efficient, keeping his pitches in the zone 68.6% of the time and rarely allowing balls to be put in play.\n  * **Steven Kwan** is conservative at the plate, swinging only 3.4% of the time and putting the ball in play just 1.1% of the time.\n\n\n\n## Braves @ Phillies: Trea Turner vs. Martín Pérez\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** Strike (61.0% chance, fair odds -157)\n  * **Martín Pérez** commands the zone well, with 69.2% of pitches in the zone, and a low play rate.\n  * **Trea Turner** swings at a modest 22.2% and puts it in play 7.7% of the time, facing a challenge against Pérez.\n\n\n\n## Giants @ Nationals: Willy Adames vs. Zack Littell\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** Strike (62.9% chance, fair odds -169)\n  * **Zack Littell** is consistent with his strikes, and **Willy Adames** is not aggressive, swinging 13.3% and putting nothing in play.\n\n\n\n## Rays @ Pirates: Oneil Cruz vs. Nick Martinez\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** In Play (13.3% chance, fair odds +650)\n  * **Nick Martinez** throws in the zone 69.0%, with **Oneil Cruz** swinging nearly half the time (47.3%) and putting 12.2% in play.\n\n\n\n## Royals @ Yankees: Maikel Garcia vs. Cam Schlittler\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** Ball (50.0% chance, fair odds -100)\n  * **Cam Schlittler** tends to start with a ball 50% of the time, making this matchup about the pitcher’s tendencies.\n\n\n\n## Royals @ Yankees: Trent Grisham vs. Michael Wacha\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** Strike (71.0% chance, fair odds -245)\n  * **Michael Wacha** throws in the zone frequently, presenting a tough challenge for **Trent Grisham** , who swings just 13.9%.\n\n\n\n## Brewers @ Marlins: Sal Frelick vs. Janson Junk\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** Strike (63.2% chance, fair odds -171)\n  * **Janson Junk** ’s strikes are met with inactivity from **Sal Frelick** , who doesn’t swing or put balls in play at all.\n\n\n\n## Tigers @ Red Sox: Gleyber Torres vs. Ranger Suarez\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** In Play (22.6% chance, fair odds +343)\n  * **Ranger Suarez** offers a chance for **Gleyber Torres** , who swings 34.6% of the time and puts 15.4% in play.\n\n\n\n## Tigers @ Red Sox: Roman Anthony vs. Casey Mize\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** In Play (16.7% chance, fair odds +499)\n  * With **Casey Mize** ’s 69.7% zone accuracy, **Roman Anthony** has a 18.6% play rate opportunity.\n\n\n\n## Reds @ Twins: TJ Friedl vs. Joe Ryan\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** Strike (61.8% chance, fair odds -162)\n  * **Joe Ryan** ’s accuracy is a hurdle for **TJ Friedl** , who swings 7.1% and puts 3.5% in play.\n\n\n\n## Dodgers @ Rockies: Edouard Julien vs. Tyler Glasnow\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** In Play (18.4% chance, fair odds +445)\n  * **Tyler Glasnow** ’s zone control meets **Edouard Julien** ’s aggressive swing rate of 47.8%.\n\n\n\n## Rangers @ Mariners: Brandon Nimmo vs. Logan Gilbert\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** Ball (51.5% chance, fair odds -106)\n  * **Logan Gilbert** starts with a ball over half the time, making this a pitcher-focused play.\n\n\n\n## Rangers @ Mariners: Brendan Donovan vs. Jacob deGrom\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** In Play (21.4% chance, fair odds +366)\n  * **Jacob deGrom** is in the zone 78.8% of the time, but **Brendan Donovan** has a 15.4% play rate.\n\n\n\n## Blue Jays @ D-backs: Nathan Lukes vs. Michael Soroka\n\n  * Alert🚨 Lineup change but still the same play with Davis Schneider but down to a 13.3% chance fair odds +650\n  * ~~**Projected Outcome:** In Play (14.9% chance, fair odds +570)~~\n  * ~~**Michael Soroka** ’s control is strong, but **Nathan Lukes** swings 28.0% and puts 20.0% in play.~~\n\n\n\n## White Sox @ Athletics: Chase Meidroth vs. Aaron Civale\n\n  * **Projected Outcome:** Ball (52.4% chance, fair odds -110)\n  * **Aaron Civale** often starts with a ball, giving **Chase Meidroth** a patient approach to consider.\n\n\n\n## Conclusion\n\nToday’s MLB games offer intriguing matchups with plenty of betting opportunities. Whether you're focusing on strike probabilities or in-play chances, understanding the pitcher-batter dynamics can give you an edge. Keep these insights handy as you enjoy the games and look for value in the odds. Happy betting!",
  "title": "MLB First Pitch Picks Today: Best Bets (April 17th) | MLB EDGE",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-18T02:08:07.318Z"
}