MLB First Pitch Picks Today: Best Bets (April 9) | MLB EDGE

MLB Matchup Preview: Thursday's First Pitch Predictions

Thursday's MLB slate might be short, but it's packed with intrigue from lunchtime through the late evening. If you're looking to capitalize on first pitch opportunities, you're in the right place. Let's dive into the matchups and see where the best bets lie.

📍Note: always verify starting lineups as this blog is written before most lineups are confirmed using projected starting pitchers, lineups, and batting orders.

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New to this market? Check out our Complete Guide to MLB First Pitch Betting Strategy to understand the data and "fair odds" calculations we use for these daily picks.

✅💰 Reds at Marlins: TJ Friedl vs. Max Meyer

• Projected Outcome: Ball (50.0% chance, fair odds -100)

This matchup is all about the pitcher. Max Meyer has a tendency to start with a ball, doing so 50.0% of the time. Keep an eye on this as Friedl steps up to the plate.

Athletics at Yankees: two good spots

• ❌😵‍💫Top of 1st: Jacob Wilson vs. Ryan Weathers
  • 😵‍💫 Fouled off 😵‍💫
  • Projected Outcome: In play (21.4% chance, fair odds +368)
  • Ryan Weathers is known for finding the zone, generating swings 50.0% of the time.
• ✅💰 Bottom of 1st: Amed Rosario vs. Jeffrey Springs
  • Projected Outcome: Ball (50.0% chance, fair odds -100)
  • Jeffrey Springs mirrors Meyer's tendencies, often starting with a ball.

Tigers at Twins: two good spots

• ✅💰 Top of 1st: Colt Keith vs. Mick Abel
  • Projected Outcome: Strike (67.7% chance, fair odds -210)
  • Mick Abel is precise with a high zone percentage of 77.8%, limiting balls in play.
• ❌ Bottom of 1st: Byron Buxton vs. Jack Flaherty
  • Projected Outcome: Ball (51.4% chance, fair odds -106)
  • Jack Flaherty has a slight propensity to throw a first pitch ball.

D-backs at Mets: two good spots

• ❌ Top of 1st: Ketel Marte vs. Nolan McLean
  • Projected Outcome: Ball (50.0% chance, fair odds -100)
  • Like Meyer and Springs, Nolan McLean often opens with a ball.
• ❌ Bottom of 1st: Francisco Lindor vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
  • Projected Outcome: Ball (61.3% chance, fair odds -158)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez has the highest ball probability among pitchers today.

❌ White Sox at Royals: Chase Meidroth vs. Seth Lugo

• Projected Outcome: In play (17.6% chance, fair odds +468)

Seth Lugo is adept at hitting the zone, but Chase Meidroth doesn't swing often, possibly skewing the in play odds.

Rockies at Padres: Edouard Julien vs. Randy Vásquez

• Projected Outcome: In play (21.0% chance, fair odds +377)

Randy Vásquez manages a decent zone percentage but Edouard Julien swings frequently, making this an interesting matchup.

I'm keeping an eye on lineups for this game - if there is a good matchup for the bottom of the first I'll update below!

Update: not enough data on these guys so we’ll pass. Best of luck with Julien as the final play of the night!

Conclusion

These first pitch predictions offer a glimpse into the strategic chess game that is baseball. Whether you’re betting on balls, strikes, or balls in play, knowing the pitchers’ tendencies can give you an edge. Dive into these matchups and make informed decisions as you enjoy Thursday's games.