MLB First Pitch Picks & Predictions: Best Bets for Monday, March 30

Tuesday is here, and we're diving into some MLB matchups to analyze the first pitch outcomes for the top and bottom of the first inning. Yesterday's picks saw us go 4-5, but hitting on three balls made it a positive night overall. With over 120 first pitches recorded this season, the trend shows a slow start with fewer strikes and balls put in play. In fact, 48% of first pitches have been balls. Let's break down some of today's higher confidence spots.

⚠These projections are posted before lineups are confirmed using projected batting orders And starting pitchers. Always confirm lineups before locking anything in.

💡 New to this market? Check out our Complete Guide to MLB First Pitch Betting Strategy to understand the data and "fair odds" calculations we use for these daily picks.

❌ White Sox @ Marlins - Bottom 1st

Jakob Marsee faces Erick Fedde , and the projected outcome is a strike with a 58.3% chance (fair odds -140).

• Erick Fedde : Throws pitches in the zone 58.3% of the time, rarely allows balls to be put in play (8.3%).
• Jakob Marsee : Has not swung at pitches or put them in play.

❌ Rockies @ Blue Jays - Bottom 1st

George Springer goes up against Ryan Feltner , with a projected ball outcome at 66.7% (fair odds -200).

• Ryan Feltner : Known for throwing a first pitch ball 66.7% of the time.

❌ Rays @ Brewers - Top 1st

Yandy Díaz faces Brandon Woodruff , with an in-play outcome probability of 23.5% (fair odds +326).

• Brandon Woodruff : Throws in the zone 75.0% of the time, generating swings 33.3% of the time.
• Yandy Díaz : Swings at 30.9% of pitches, puts them in play 17.6% of the time.

❌ Red Sox @ Astros - Top 1st

Roman Anthony versus Hunter Brown , with an in-play projection of 18.2% (fair odds +449).

• Hunter Brown : High zone accuracy at 78.1%, generates swings 31.3% of the time.
• Roman Anthony : Swings at 35.5% of pitches, with a 22.6% in-play rate.

✅💰 Red Sox @ Astros - Bottom 1st

Jeremy Peña takes on Brayan Bello , and the in-play chance is 24.3% (fair odds +312).

• Brayan Bello : Throws in the zone 79.3%, with 20.7% of pitches put in play.
• Jeremy Peña : Swings at 37.8% of pitches, puts them in play 19.4% of the time.

✅💰 Tigers @ D-backs - Bottom 1st

Ketel Marte faces Casey Mize , with an in-play chance of 20.3% (fair odds +391).

• Casey Mize : Hits the zone 73.3% of the time, allowing only 6.7% of balls to be put in play.
• Ketel Marte : Swings at 40.9% of pitches, with a high in-play rate of 27.3%.

❌ Giants @ Padres - Top 1st

Jung Hoo Lee Willy Adames against Germán Márquez , with a projected ball outcome of 57.7% (fair odds -136).

• Germán Márquez : Throws a first pitch ball 57.7% of the time.

❌ Yankees @ Mariners - Top 1st

Grish burned us here chasing a pitch up out of the zone for a swing and a miss 😵‍💫

Trent Grisham faces Logan Gilbert , with a ball outcome probability of 51.7% (fair odds -107).

• Logan Gilbert : Consistently throws a first pitch ball 51.7% of the time.

Conclusion

These matchups provide a variety of outcomes to consider for first pitch betting. The data highlights the tendencies of both pitchers and batters, giving you a strategic edge. Keep an eye on these probabilities as you plan your picks for the day. Happy betting!