US Trade Deficit Stabilizes as Post-Tariff ‘Front-Loading’ Fades

US trade deficit rebounded to USD 56.8 billion in November after recording a USD 29.2 billion shortfall, the smallest monthly since 2009, in the previous month, the US Census Bureau reported Thursday. The October figure was likely a result of the companies front-loading their imports in the first half of the year and subsequently selling off their outsized inventory since then. This reduction in import helped narrow the trade deficit temporarily. In November, US external trade began to revert to a level closer to “normal” — The USD 56.8 billion figure is much closer to the average monthly deficit of the previous four years, which ranged from USD 53.1 billion to USD 73.3 billion. Accumulated data from January to November shows that 2025 is an outlier. Unlike previous years, the 2025 deficit follows a distinct curve: an unusually large trade deficit in the first three months, which preceded the “reciprocal” tariff announcement in April, followed by a sharp contraction as inventories were utilized. The chart also indicates that the total January-to-November trade deficit remains higher in 2025 than in 2024, showing an increase of about USD 33 billion.