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"path": "/editor-highlights/harnessing-subseasonal-to-seasonal-predictability-from-annual-evolution",
"publishedAt": "2026-03-31T12:00:00.000Z",
"site": "https://eos.org",
"tags": [
"Editors' Highlights",
"climate",
"everything atmospheric",
"forecasting",
"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres",
"polar vortex",
"stratosphere",
"Secor et al. [2026]"
],
"textContent": "(a) Climatological (solid circles) and individual-year (open circles) annual phase-space trajectories of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). The color bar indicates the progression through the calendar year. (b) Correlation skill of forecasts for monthly-mean SPV anomalies derived from differences between the predicted and climatological annual phase-space trajectories, shown as a function of lead time (left ordinate) and the day of year at which the forecasts are verified (right ordinate). Each predicted SPV annual phase-space trajectory is constructed from statistical predictions of its center, semi-major and semi-minor axes, orientation, and initial phase, using predictors available before October 1 prior to the forecasts of cold-season anomalies. The predictors consist of yearly varying indices representing climate modes, surface forcings, stratospheric ozone, atmospheric circulation state, isentropic mass circulation, and phase-space trajectory precursors. Credit: Secor et al. [2026]",
"title": "Harnessing Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictability from Annual Evolution"
}