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  "path": "/2026/02/13/trailing-narrative.html",
  "publishedAt": "2026-02-13T14:21:48.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.manton.org",
  "textContent": "Thinking about how narratives build and collapse this morning. Not sure I can articulate it well, but roughly:\n\n  1. Someone has an idea and shares it; no one notices.\n  2. A few news stories pop up around that idea; it becomes the narrative.\n  3. Future news that is even remotely related to that idea is judged as confirming the narrative; it is accepted as obvious truth that everyone _just knows_.\n\n\n\nMostly fine so far. But here’s where it breaks down:\n\n  5. Something significant changes; no one notices.\n  6. The narrative has become a caricature of the original idea; it's barely true anymore.\n  7. Everyone carries on as if nothing has changed; sometimes they even fight new ideas that reflect the changed world.\n\n\n\nWhat happens next is probably wildly different depending on the narrative. I don’t have a specific example to share here. I’ve just seen it play out like this multiple times.\n\nSometimes narratives slowly fade. Sometimes they shatter. In either case, the hardest part is noticing.",
  "title": "Trailing narrative"
}